Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
2022 Finish: 2nd NFC East / Lost Divisional Round
Points per game 26.8 l (4th) Takeaways per game (1st) l Pass play percentage 52.70%. (24th) l Redzone TD percentage 71.43% (1st)
-Mazi Smith DT (Michigan)
-Luke Schoonmaker TE (Michigan)
-Dalton Schultz TE(Houston)
-Connor McGovern G (Buffalo)
-Noah Brown WR (Houstan)
-Ezekial Elliot RB (NA)
Cowboys Win total (9.5)
-Over (-170) / Under (+145)
This year’s Cowboy’s squad comes into the season looking a lot like last year’s team. While they didn’t grab many free agents, they were able to retain most of their important UFAs. Losing Schultz was obviously a blow to an offense that ranked in the top 5 in points last year, especially in the redzone, where they ranked first in TD percentage. Dallas fans have to hope that former Wolverine Luke Schoonmaker will be able to step up as a rookie.
Losing Zeke is ostensibly another significant loss for the team; however, Elliot had the worst season of his career in 2022-2023 and was effectively phased out for Tony Pollard toward the end of the year. Yes, Zeke did have 12 rushing TDs for the Cowboys, but only one of those came in his last 7 games in silver and blue. In two postseason games, the running back had a combined 53 yards on 23 carries. Suggesting Zeke’s departure will impact Dallas’ win total is absurd at best.
More concerning for Cowboys fans is the play, and health of Dak Prescott. Through 12 games, Prescott had a QBR of just 57.9, posting some of his worst numbers since 2018 when he played only 5 games.
If the Cowboys want to win against a very tough schedule, they will need Prescott to be huge—and perhaps take command of their offense in a way that differs from last year’s gameplan. Dallas had one of the lowest pass play percentages last year, leaning heavily on the run.
This isn’t a recipe for success in the modern NFL. There is little value at -165 on the Cowboy’s over. If the Cowboy’s cover, it might be at a close 10-7, which is certainly not worth the juice. Look for some value with U 9.5 wins at +140 but weigh the risk accordingly. For some extreme value, look into an Under 7.5 alt-line at +400—if Big D splits with the division, they should hover around 7-8 wins.
Cowboys NFC East Betting Odds (+165)
While we don’t love Dallas’s juiced up win total, this is a play Cowboy’s believers should get behind. If America’s team gets to 10-7, chances are they might be in the divisional driver’s seat. Assuming the Eagles take a step back, the Cowboys would likely be next in line, and at 10-7 they certainly might win a division that saw a 7-9 Washington club take the crown as recently as 2020-2021. The odds are too good to pass on, especially if bettors are down on Hurts and Philly. Prescott certainly needs to play better but it is well within the realm of possibility he returns to his best form.
Cowboys Superbowl odds (+1500) Cowboys odds to win the NFC (+650)
The words “postseason” and “Cowboys” usually don’t end up together in many positive sentences about the team. In fact, it seems like July and August are the best months for Dallas in terms of playoff hype and Super Bowl speculation. While the Cowboys have well documented struggles in postseason action, their lack of success has inflated their odds at an advantageous rate for bettors. The Cowboys have strangely longer odds than AFC hopefuls Cincinnati and Buffalo. For the Bengals, if Burrow misses the season with his current injury, their SB odds plummet to just 1.1% according to CBS. While the former AFC champ probably won’t miss all of the season, it seems likely he will miss a bit of time—which could allow Baltimore to outpace Cincy in the division and weaken their playoff position.
For Buffalo, they demonstrated a wealth of flaws last season and had an ostensibly worse postseason than the Cowboys did, given expectations. Furthermore, these teams would likely play the reigning AFC champion Chiefs on the road to Superbowl Sunday, something the Cowboys wouldn’t have to worry about in their conference stretch. At +1500, the Cowboys, though they can be dreadful, are worth a quick look given the NFC figures to be an easier route to Las Vegas. In the NFC, they are +650 to win the conference, behind the Eagles (+320) and 49ers (+360). If bettors don’t believe in Brock Purdy (or Purdy’s health) and think Philly takes a step back, the Cowboys suddenly have a lot of value at +650 in what may be a three team race.
New York Giants (9-7-1)
2022 Finish: 3rd in NFC East / Lost Divisional Round
Giveaways per game 0.9 (2nd) l Pass yards per play 187.1 (26th) l Rush yards per game 146.3 (6th) l Opponents 3rd down conversion 37.55% (5th) l Takeaways per game 1 (26th)
Free Agency: Additions and Subtractions
Deonte Banks CB (Maryland)
Jordan Schmitz C (Minnesota)
Bobby Okereke LB (Indianapolis)
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT (Tampa Bay)
Key Subtractions
Nick Gates G (Washington)
Julian Love FS (Seattle)
Richie James WR (Kansas City)
Jon Feliciano C (San Francisco)
Giants Win total (7.5) Over -110 / Under -110
The Giants had unexpectedly good year in 2022: The G-Men finished 3rd in the NFC East but managed to make the playoffs along with every other member of their division—save Washington. In the postseason, New York upset a talented Vikings squad, but scored only a single touchdown in a beatdown delivered at the hands of Brock Purdy’s 49ers in the second round. One of the keys to the Giants playoff loss was their lack of a dynamic offense. In that game, Daniel jones threw for just 135 yards meanwhile Barkley added only 61 on the ground.
Since then, the Giants have made a lot of good moves to build on their success in 22-23. Their 7-pick haul has been graded “B+” through “A” by many experts, who were impressed by the selections of a new starting center in Schmitz, An excellent cornerback in Banks, and a speedy receiving target in one Jalin Hyatt. New York has furthered its previously lackluster passing attack by retaining Darius Slayton and adding former colt Parris Campbell and veteran wideout Jamison Crowder. However, their biggest splash was adding Linebacker Bobby Okereke, who is coming off a career year in Indianapolis.
One of the keys for the Giants last season was their exceptionally low turnover rate. With Barkley protecting the ball on the ground, and Jones unforced to make risky throws, the team sat at an average of just 0.9 giveaways a game. Aside from the Barkley stare down, the team has had a brilliant offseason. Find value with O7.5 at a fair -110.
Giants NFC East Betting Odds (+700)
It is true that it has been something like two decades since a team won the NFC East back-to-back seasons. If you believe the streak won’t be broken, then look for a new winner to emerge between the Giants and Cowboys. New York has added a stellar draft class and made a splash in free agency, so Barkley plays like he did last season, this is a team that could win the East. With +700 odds, this Giants future is worth a look.
Giants Superbowl odds (+4000) Giants odds to win the NFC (+1600)
The NFC is a weak and volatile conference in this new era. Without generational talents in Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady around this year, the last of the NFC’s stalwart quarterback talent has finally bled out. In the wake of these departures, the NFC is faced with a situation in which Jalen Hurts might suddenly be the top dog. Yet, this is far from a consensus. Colin Cowherd has a top three of Matt Stafford, Hurts, and Jared Goff, meanwhile USA Today and Sportingnews.com have a head scratching lineup of Hurts, Prescott, and Justin Fields.
With this said, Danny Dimes is a relatively decent QB in the NFC—even ranking 6th in the conference by Sportingnews.com’s standards. If the Giants make the postseason again—and they very well may do so as a wildcard—they might be able to pull off another run. Assuming they are healthy, this is a team that can compete with most teams in the NFC, only being severely disadvantaged against the 49ers and Eagles. But, they will get to play Philly twice and prepare for revenge if it comes to it, and they may not even have to face the Niners if Purdy takes a step back or they are upset by another team. With all this said, it is not impossible for the Giants to make a run to the NFC championship game, which is a game better than they finished last year. With +1600 odds, bettors can surely hedge in the championship if Jones and company find themselves in a title game.
While the Giants NFC odds are tempting because of a potential hedge and the weakness of the NFC, the Superbowl is a different story. If Danny Dimes does suit up in Vegas, expect them to be double-digit dogs against an AFC heavyweight like the Chiefs, Bills, or Bengals. This means there probably won’t be a great chance to hedge if the AFC winner is a -200 or more favorite. But, still, if the Giants can make it to the NFC championship and win, they do have a chance. At +4000, it isn’t a total waste, like betting the Texans at +20,000, but at the same time probably more appropriate for a $10 to $20 free bet.
Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
2022 Finish: 1st NFC East / Lost Superbowl
TDs per game 3.6 l (1st) Opponents yards per game 292.8 (1st) l Sack percentage 11%. (1st) l Pass play percentage 50.6 (29th)
-Jalen Carter DL (Georgia)
-Nolan Smith LB (Georgia)
-Rashaad Penny RB (Seattle)
-Miles Sanders RB (Carolina)
-Javon Hargrave DT (San Francisco)
-TJ Edwards LB (Chicago)
- Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S (Detroit)
-Marcus Epps S (Las Vegas)
Season Props
Eagles Win total (11.5)
-Over (+110) / Under (-130)
The reigning NFC champs have quite a changed win total at 11.5, and not without reason. For starters, they were picked a part in free agency, as is sometimes the case with Superbowl teams. They lost their top two safeties, star RB Miles Sanders, and experienced DT Javon Hargrave. They picked up some lower cost players like S Justin Evans or RB Rashaad Penny to plug holes, but at the cost of talent. The loss of Sanders is especially tough for a team that ranked 29th in pass play percentage.
While the Eagles didn’t appear to be big winners in free agency, they did, possibly, win the draft. Jalen Crater fell to them miraculously and finds himself paired with former Bulldog teammate Nolan Smith. If you believe what is coming out of camp, they might have the best player from the class and the DROY between the two. So, the Eagles will look to some of their 1st and 2nd year guys to step up, but the team is still lead by QB Jalen Hurts, who many now regard as the best in not just the East, but in the NFC.
With Hurts under center in a dynamic offense and backed by one of the league’s best defenses, it is hard to bet against the Eagles. However, they do play a brutal seven game stretch that goes: Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Giants. These games coupled with a week 1 game against the Ravens in Baltimore could easily turn up 6 losses. While we think the Eagles have a good chance to run the NFC again, we don’t think they necessarily need twelve wins to win the division. 11-6 or 10-7 very well might win the East. And after coming so close against Mahomes last season, expect Philly to focus more on the postseason than regular season win streaks.
Eagles NFC East Betting Odds (-110)
Sure, the Eagles lost some pieces. Sure, they may take a step back. But look around at the NFC East and you will see why this is a chalk play with decent odds. If Barkley no-shows in spirit, the Giants are likely done. The Commanders are starting a guy they couldn’t find reps for in a lost season with a QB room of Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke. Dallas is the biggest threat to Philly this year, but as Hurts has trended up, Prescott has trended downward. The most sensible play in the division is an Eagles repeat—there is some superstition that we have touched on, but bettors can’t go to the books throwing salt over their shoulders.
Eagles Superbowl Odds (+750) Eagles odds to win the NFC (+320)
The NFC is likely to be a three-team race between the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers. While the odds are a bit short on the Eagles to run it back in the NFC, we think Hurts is a clear cut #1 in the NFC’s QB rankings. With Hurts leading the team, and their defense playing big again, the Eagles would be a clear choice for the crown. Look for these odds to shrivel if the Cowboys or Niners flop. As far as the Superbowl goes, the Eagles look set and hungry to return. If their young guns come through for them, it is hard to see them failing to reach Las Vegas. The NFC is beatable, and their path is relatively clear, so as long as the Eagles reach the Superbowl, bettors will be getting a good deal on their future with the option to hedge. Overall, +750 and +320 are solid odds for a team that should be ready to repeat all but the last Sunday of their run last season.
Washington Commanders (8-8-1)
2022 Finish: 4th in NFC East / Missed Playoffs
Turnover Margin -0.3 (26th) l Penalty yards given up per game 47.4.8 (20th) l Yards per play 4.9 (28th) l Opponents yards per game 304.6 (3rd)
-Andrew Wylie T (Kansas City)
-Nick Gates G (New York Giants)
-Jacoby Brissett QB (Clevland) -Emmanuel Forbes CB (Miss St.)
-Ricky Stormberg C (Arkansas)
-Cole Holcomb LB (Pittsburg)
-Taylor Heinicke QB (Atlanta)
Season Props
Commanders Win total (6.5)
-Over (-110) / Under (-120)
It’s hard to love this Commanders team, but this line feels way too low. 2022 was a miserable year for a directionless Washington team embroiled in issues on and off the field. They rolled out Carson Wentz to start the season, and that went about as well as when they tried to revive an ancient Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center. But truth be told, it wouldn’t have mattered who they put behind their O-line, because it was putrid at best. Giving up an 8% sack rate, one of the worst in the league, Wentz and Heinicke were running for their lives on almost every play. Additionally, their excellent RB tandem of Gibson and Robison Jr. were facing defenses playing the run and crowding the box all season.
Last season was quickly apparent as a lost cause; yet, curiously, they elected to not play rookie QB Sam Howell until their final matchup. In limited action it was hard to tell just how good or bad the UNC product might be this season. In a bizarre twist, after refusing to play Howell until it was too late, he figures to be the team’s QB1 for this season—and potentially near future, as the team elected not to draft any QB talent in the 2023 class. They passed on some intriguing project QBs including Jack Haener, Will Levis, and Hendon Hooker. So, if Howell plays poorly, they go to veteran Brissett and then start over in 2024 with no franchise QB or prospect.
Washington seems oddly confident in a guy that they wouldn’t let sniff the field in a losing season. However, even with all their flaws, the Commanders still pulled an 8-8-1 out of the 2022 season. It’s hard for me to believe that Howell is significantly worse than either of Washington’s ’22 QB choices, and the Commanders have at least invested in a better O-line for the young arm. Washington snagged guard Nick Gates from rival NYG and paid a chunk of money for former Kansas City tackle Andrew Wylie. Not to mention a draft class loaded with lineman and secondary players. If the Commanders D returns to former, and Howell is not moderately worse than what they had last year, this team should see 7-8 wins again easily.
Commanders NFC East Betting Odds (+1300)
People are already writing the Commanders off, but this is a sneaky Washington team. If Howell is the real deal, he was an exceptional array of offensive weapons around him. From receivers Dotson and McLaurin to RBs Gibson and Robinson Jr., Howell will have no shortage of weapons to go along with his checkdown TE Logan Thomas. But, is their defense, in any scenario, good enough to compete with Prescott and Hurts? Maybe not. It seems unlikely the Commanders, though surrounded by much more positive energy this year, take the leap to NFC East champ. But, don’t be surprised if they hold a quiet and quick lead or tie during the early weeks.
Commanders Superbowl odds (+8000) Commanders odds to win the NFC (+4000)
This is where we have to check ourselves. Yes, the Commanders could make the playoffs—they almost cracked it with the other three East teams for the first ever division sweep—but this is a team that would be lucky to give their Wildcard opponent a scare. If Howell is the guy, and their defense steps up, they will have something to build off of, but success isn’t going to be that fast. Ron Rivera probably wants to keep his job, and as long as he sniffs postseason, I think his seat will get a lot cooler. Take a look at Washington +280 to make the playoffs if you like this squad.
Odds Via Caeser's Sportsbook
FA movement via Sportrac.com
Strength of schedule via CBS.com
Draft picks via ESPN.com
2022 stats via teamrankings.com