New York Jets (7-10)
2022 Finish: 4th in AFC East / Missed Postseason
Points per game 17.4 l (29) Opponents’ Pass yards per game 189 (3) l Rush yards per game 99.2 (25) l Redzone TD percentage 43% (31)
-Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)
-Allen Lazard (Green Bay)
-Joe Tippmann (Wisconsin)
-Randel Cobb (Green Bay)
-Sheldon Rankins (Texans)
-Nathan Shepherd (New Orleans)
Season Props
Over (-140) / Under (+120) win total (9.5)
It is hard not to bite on this over; the Jets were already within a few wins of this mark last season, while playing Mike White, Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, and Chris Streveler at various points under center. Part of the reason for their relative “success” going 7-10 was a pair of rookie revelations: Sauce Gardner helped bring the Jet’s secondary to life, which ranked 3rd in opponents’ pass yards per game, and managed to bag DROY. On the other side of the field, Garret Wilson, the OROY, managed to catch balls from the four aforementioned QBs…equally impressive. So, throw in one disgruntled, future Hall of Famer in Rodgers and you have a playoff team, right? Well, while Rodgers addresses some of the offensive concerns from 2022-2023, there are still big questions surrounding the Jet’s run game, and Defensive front seven. Not to mention the issue of first-year cohesion, and, on top of these factors, Rodgers’s health. The Veteran QB turns 40 during this season and is already dealing with an injury. If Rodgers goes down, the Jets will look very much like they did last year, except with Flacco’s jersey reading “Boyle” this time.
AFC East Odds: Division winner (+230)
Flat out. No exceptions. These odds are putrid. Jets believers will bet this line with the confidence Broncos bettors had when Russell Wilson landed in Mile High…and might walk back to the books with the same level of shame. It is entirely possible New York wins the East, but it hinges on too many factors to have shorter odds than Baltimore to unseat the Bengals (+275). Last year, the Bills took the division with 13 wins (out of 16 games) and Miami got to nine wins while having to roll out Skylar Thompson and Teddy B. With the 6th hardest schedule in the NFL, the Jets simply need too much to go too well for them in order to overcome the talent in their own division. The books setting both the Jets and the Phins at 9.5 wins, and the Bills at 10.5 demonstrates they are trying to sell the Rodgers hype. Fade it.
Superbowl Champ (+1500) Conference Champ (+900)
Some bettors will like swinging for the fences on these odds. I can appreciate some of the implications of the Division bet: if the jets win the division, that means the Bills may not be anywhere near Superbowl shape, the Dolphins perhaps not competitive, and New York firing on all cylinders. If these things are the case, it might just be Kansas City and Cincy that could stop Rodgers and Co. While I don’t see any of it happening, if the Jets do manage to claim the East, they might as well stand a chance against the AFC’s other elite; however, I would still have to take the Bengals or Chiefs in the AFC Championship. If you believe in what Aaron Rodgers still has in the tank, perhaps a sprinkle on the Conf or SB could be worth it.
Buffalo Bills (13-3)
2022 Finish: 1st in AFC East / Lost in AFC DIV
Turnover Diff 0 (15) l Points per game 27.7 l (3) Opponents’ Pass comps per game 22.4 (21) l Yards per play 6.1 (2)
-Dalton Kincaid (Tulane)
-Dorian Williams (Utah)
-Damien Harris (Patriots)
-Leonard Floyd (L.A. Rams)
Key Departures
Season Props
Over (-145) / Under (+125) win total (10.5)
2023 saw the Bills melt down in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs, losing a hardly contested bout with the Bengals, which was hardly a deviation from Josh Allen’s current post season history. Although each year’s first or second round exit seems more upsetting than the last—especially if you are watching player reactions on the sidelines—it is hardly enough to justify the Under here. Yes, the Bills are frustrated. Will there be large-scale changes if they cannot produce a Josh Allen Superbowl bid within the next few seasons? Possibly. But a sense of looming dread shouldn’t be enough to drop the Bills season win percentage from 81% to 59%.
AFC East Odds: Division winner (+125)
The Bills figure to have stiffer competition this year, as Aaron Rodgers—or what is left of Aaron Rodgers—has arrived in New York and Tua and McDaniel hope to have a healthy, cohesive season that continues to integrate Tyreek Hill. With stiffer competition, the Bills might see a closer race for the East, but fans should expect Buffalo to pull away with the title down the stretch. The Bills have too much experience as a unit, and aside from losing Edmunds and swapping mid-tier RBS in Free Agency, are poised to look much like last year: a regular season juggernaut.
Superbowl Champ (+900) Conference Champ (+475)
While the Bills seem to be ready to steamroll the regular season once more, I don’t think it will translate to Postseason success. As long as the Bengals and Chiefs are healthy, Buffalo shouldn’t expect to find themselves suiting up in Las Vegas come February. However, if they somehow do, they would certainly be the favorites in SB 58. The value here is exceptional, given a potential hedge on Superbowl Sunday. Thus, Champ odds might be worth a sprinkle, especially if you think they are going to at least win the AFC.
Miami Dolphins (9-8)
2022 Finish: 2nd in AFC East / Lost in AFC Wildcard
Yards per play 6 (3) l Rush yards per game 96 (27) l (3) Rushes per game 22.8 (31) l Yards per pass 7.5 (4) l Turnover Margin -0.3 (28) l Penalties per Game 6.6 (29)
-Cam Smith (South Carolina)
-Devon Achane (Texas A&M)
-Jalen Ramsey (L.A. Rams)
-Tyler Kroft (San Francisco)
Key Departures
-Mike Gesicki (New England)
Greg Little (Texans)
Season Props
Over (-105) / Under (+115) win total (9.5)
I love this team coming into the season as a bit of a dark horse. Of course, their line is set at 9.5, the same as the Jets, and one off from the reigning champion Bills, but I am not so sure the Under is the play. If the New York Jets are a disaster, then the Dolphins might be able to grab four to five divisional wins, then with the Texans, Commanders, Broncos, Raiders, Panthers, and Falcons still on the slate, another five to six wins doesn’t seem so farfetched. Expect the books to be selling this line a bit too high, given the Dolphins high strength of schedule (on paper) and Tua’s health concerns last year. But don’t fade the Over just yet.
AFC East Odds: Division winner (+300)
Miami has taken steps to become more competitive in their division. With the addition of secondary players like Jalen Ramsey and rookie ballhawk Cam Smith, the Phins hope to improve from being one of the top five worst teams in turnover differential and takeaways. Ramsey is coming of a 4 INT 3 forced fumble season alone. Fans will also hope Rookie RB Devon Achane can help bring the speed and versatility Miami is currently lacking from its backfield. But even with these signings, Miami is still predicted to finish behind Josh Allen’s Bills and Aaron Rodgers’s Jets this coming season. While I like the value of Miami over that of an unproven Jets team, I still see Buffalo running away with the East. The Dolphins know they are a dangerous wildcard. Expect them to make the playoffs, alongside the AFC East champion Bills.
Superbowl Champ (+2500) Conference Champ (+1300)
There was a lot to dislike from the Dolphins 2022-2023 campaign: from the bungling of Tua’s diagnosis and gruesome head injuries, to one of the NFL’s worst rushing groups, we saw a lot of ugly this prior season. However, Miami’s season wasn’t necessarily a complete failure. Mike McDaniel’s support from within his team was hard to miss. The second year Dolphins coach is coming off a season largely viewed as a success, given they rode a 7th round, rookie signal caller in Skylar Thompson into the playoffs and came within one drive of upsetting divisional rival Buffalo in the Wildcard game. Could this be the year a healthy squad makes a deep playoff push for Miami? Don’t discount the possibility. At +1300, the Phins are a great dark horse value for the conference, if one of the heavy hitters from last year falls off. Additionally, I love Miami as a Wildcard; they may not win their division, but I can’t imagine anyone hoping to see a healthy Tua in the first round. As for the SB, it is hard to anticipate Tua getting a chip on his first try: think Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow’s respective first Superbowl results. But, perhaps with this year's NFC strength wanning, Dolphin's fans may fare better on SuperBowl Sunday.
New England (8-9)
2022 Finish: 3rd in AFC East / Missed Playoffs
Takeaways per game 1.8 (2) l 3rd Down Conversion 34.88% (27) l Yards per game 22.8 (26) l Yards per pass 7.5 (4) l Opponents yards per play 5.0 (5)
-JuJu Smith-Schuster (Kansas City)
-Mike Gesicki (Miami)
-2023 Draft Class
-OL depth
Key Departures
-Jakobi Meyers (Las Vegas)
Jonnu Smith (Atlanta)
Damien Harris (Buffalo)
Season Props
Over (-115) / Under (-105) win total (7.5)
The Pats took a big hit to their receiving corps with the loss of Meyers but have worked hard to rectify their passing attack. Gesicki and Smith-Schuster are joined by LSU standout Kayshon Boutte as new weapons for Mac Jones. In addition to replacing and upgrading their passing game, New England used Free Agency and the Draft in order to upgrade their OL depth. With a strong defense returning most of its impactful players, New England’s only question mark is standing behind center. Can this be the year Mac Jones elevates his game, takes the next step forward, and pushes the Pats toward a winning season? It feels unlikely, based on track record at least. Plus, they figure to play 6 of their 17 games against Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Tua Tagovailoa. Division wins will be at a premium and their schedule (3rd toughest) isn’t much easier outside of those games, featuring heavyweights like the Chargers, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Eagles as well as up in coming groups like the Saints, Steelers, and Giants. I think the Patriots might not only fall under seven games, but perhaps five—or even four in a doomsday scenario—so bettors may find additional value in an alt-line fading Belichick’s club. This is a make or break year for the Patriots, and fans should expect a lot to be broken-up come this time next year.
AFC East Odds: Division winner (+1000)
Two words: Sportsbook donation. I love how the Patriots have built with young players, but the impact of their plethora of rookies really won’t be felt until 2024 at the earliest. I can imagine this team struggling early, then resigning themselves to tanking for one of the touted QBs from this coming ’24 class. Division winner is simply not within reach yet.
Superbowl Champ (+6000) Conference Champ (+3500)
Maybe Mac Jones turns it on and the Pats go on an unthinkable run. Maybe a $10 free bet could be used on one of these, but there are up and coming teams like the Jags, Saints, and Chargers with already decent Conference and SB odds. Why spend money with the Patriots, when there are more promising teams who already have a Quarterback they trust? Even the Ravens boast better prospects of Conference contention with four-digit odds.
-Lines and odds curtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
- Player movement and free agent movement via information found on Spotrac.com
- Team stats via www.teamrankings.com
-Strength of schedule via CBSsports.com